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As the potential TikTok ban has neared, users, marketers and publications have been mourning the way it shaped our culture for the past five years and debating what happens next. At the same time, there’s been the nearly unavoidable buzz about RedNote, the Chinese social media app that’s been thrust into the spotlight as a safe haven for “TikTok refugees.”
On Thursday morning, the Biden administration was looking for ways to keep TikTok available in the United States. But, by Thursday night, it had already changed course, saying it would not enforce the ban and would leave what happens next in Trump’s hands. A ban was still scheduled to go into effect on Sunday.
Things are moving rapidly, and the fate of TikTok remains a developing story.
For at least a week, TikTok has been flooded with content acknowledging the platform’s impact on everything from the way people do their makeup and cook their meals, to the way songs become hits. As tech outlet The Verge noted, videos where users say goodbye to their “Chinese spies” might be the app’s last great trend.
It is undeniable that, for beauty, TikTok changed the game.
“Experiment wouldn’t have existed [or been successful] as it has without TikTok,” said Lisa Guerrera, co-founder and CEO of Experiment skin care.
The app’s unique algorithm made it possible for products to go viral overnight. It galvanized people to drive to stores, where they often filmed themselves testing products in their car before heading home (a phenomenon documented in this 2021 newsletter). And it regularly sold out products in ways that couldn’t be measured.
As creator Mads Mitch said in a January 13 TikTok post with over 720,000 views, “It seems like a really weird time for the U.S. government to be actively trying to mitigate consumer spending. … I truly do not think they have any understanding at all of all of the different ways in which TikTok drives the economy.” She pointed to the regular occurrence of going to Target to pick up a viral product and discovering it’s gone. “Oh, it’s sold out, because everyone had the exact same idea that you did. That’s insane. Have you ever heard of a product going viral on Instagram? It just doesn’t happen.”
On TikTok this week, users documented their experiences downloading RedNote, noting that its Chinese users were so friendly and welcoming and that they were having new and positive experiences. But, according to Becky Owen, CMO at the influencer marketing agency Billion Dollar Boy, this “panic migration” is a “sign of defiance” and, for creators, represents a fear of losing their livelihoods, rather than a long-term, long-lasting switch to the app. Owen said she would be surprised if she found herself building RedNote strategies for clients. “We wouldn’t suddenly start testing on these apps, because I’m not sure that, after the hype is gone, creators are going to put a lot of time and effort into making content for them. … They’ve got YouTube Shorts, Instagram, Snapchat, …. When the dust settles, I think it’s going to be a consolidation, as opposed to an increase in platforms that are now getting a piece of the pie.”
Still, Guerrera, as well as Michelle Miller, CMO at Vegamour, have claimed their brands’ name handles on RedNote, just in case. “I don’t think RedNote is going to last. I think it’s going to be fun for a minute, but it’s [primarily] in Mandarin, so let’s be real,” Guerrera said. “Still, as a brand, this is a moment for clout. If you’re a brand on RedNote, you’re cool.” It means you’re moving at the speed of culture, as brands love to say.
And it goes deeper than just being well-aligned with youth culture. “[Young people] understand that this ban is not only just a little anti-American, [but it is also] weirdly anti-capitalist — America loves making money, and TikTok makes us so much money,” Guerrera said. “And [on yet another level], they also understand the irony of moving to another Chinese platform — it’s deeply funny. … We are accepting the terms and conditions and being like, ‘What? Who cares?’ [Because] it’s all out of spite, right?” A New York Times article with the headline “On TikTok, users mock looming U.S. ban” pointed to the same cultural dynamic.
The TikTok ban started based on the U.S. government’s concerns over the Chinese national security laws requiring Chinese companies to comply with its government, creating potential security risks for the United States. It has also stated that TikTok provides sensitive user data to the Chinese government. Finally, it has cited concerns that the Chinese government could manipulate content on TikTok to influence Americans and fuel misinformation.
For her part, Miller said that, as a marketer, she will always follow creators’ lead. “[I look at] where creators are going and where community is being built,” she said. “Right now, it feels like RedNote [may be one of those places], but it also feels like TikTok still has time — it’s not over until the wheels fall off.” Miller said RedNote won’t likely be a place where Vegamour runs ads, but it could be one where it builds community.
Creators, meanwhile, will go where earning opportunities still exist for them. “They’ll start to go to the dominant platforms with existing formats where they can guarantee income to fill the hole that TikTok brand deals will leave,” Owen said. There are line items in brand budgets for TikTok, and brands are discussing in real time where that money may go, she said. For Miller, CTV, Substack and podcast ads are among the possibilities she is considering.
Guerrera anticipates a “weird, flux-y moment” for a lot of brands should the ban take place. “Many have been putting on a brave face,” she said.
Experiment will soon launch on Amazon, which will help replace sales lost from TikTok Shop, she said. It also sells at Urban Outfitters, as well as DTC. The brand already posts on Instagram Reels and will continue to do so, but it also plans to upload its TikTok content to YouTube Shorts. Finally, it plans to increase its focus on email. “We have a really strong email list. It is our biggest channel by far, in terms of reaching our customers. And it’s one of the money makers for the brand,” Guerrera said. “So we’re increasing our email cadence a little bit.”
A beauty creator with hundreds of thousands of TikTok followers told Glossy Pop via a DM that she was definitely considering joining RedNote, but that she felt confused about what platforms to take seriously.
If the ban goes through, creators and beyond will be left seeking new outlets to try to replicate the community they built, or found, on TikTok.
Christina Torres, adjunct assistant professor at FIT and doctoral candidate at Teachers College at Columbia University, managed to upload her first post to RedNote with a little help from Google Translate. She has historically been an early adopter, joining TikTok in 2018 at a student’s recommendation — she is now doing the same on RedNote. She’s observed a unique cultural exchange, with many longtime Chinese users making videos to show new American users how to use the app, she said. On the app, the hashtag #TikTokRefugee had 1 billion views as this story was written.
On the beauty front, she’d observed Chinese and American users exchanging product recommendations and noting what could be used as dupes for products unavailable in either country. “A lot of product suggestions are happening, with people talking about products that are available internationally … that people would have otherwise never heard about,” Torres said.
A quick scroll through the beauty content on the app revals American creators showing off products from brands that are popular here like Charlotte Tilbury, Rhode, Glow Recipe and Rare Beauty. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, on TikTok, there is already content advising the “refugees” on how to generate an income on RedNote.
Many American brands, agencies and executives may plan to funnel resources back into pre-existing platforms, such as Meta’s. But all should also prepare for a chaotic few months of splintered social media audiences as users experiment — searching for a new digital space that feels like home.
Collab of the week: CBS x Beis
CSB, short for Crop Shop Boutique, maker of Australian athleisure worn by Alix Earle and Olivia Wilde, has teamed with Beis, for a collab of coordinated, travel-ready attire and bags. “Both brands are female-founded, and there’s so much overlap between both of our audiences — the CSB girl is always on the go,” said CSB founder Rachel Dillon. “We have our sights set on the U.S. in 2025, and Beis has an incredible presence [in the states], so this launch felt like the perfect way to make our entrance.” Shop it here.
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