Tariffs are creating confusion in the marketplace, and retailers and advertisers alike are anxiously waiting to see how they impact the economy. And they have created confusion in the marketplace with how they will be impacting the economy. A University of Pennsylvania Wharton study noted the increase in economic uncertainty driven by tariffs: “Economic policy uncertainty can be quantified using the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index, a measure designed to capture uncertainty surrounding economic policy decisions. By the end of March, the EPU reached its highest point since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, doubling in value from the start of January.”
According to the Wharton study — which analyzed three scenarios: consumers taking on 100%, 75% and 50% of the tax burden from the tariffs — almost every U.S. household will see a negative impact on gross income, regardless of who bears the burden of the tariffs. (The only exception would be households with an average age of 50-59 at the time of the tariff policy change in the top 20% income bracket.) Overall, the study shows how the negative economic impacts of the tariffs and the resulting uncertainty will cause consumers to pull back on spending.
Beyond consumers, the tariffs’ effects are also being felt across the supply chain. “The supply damage has already been done,” according to James Zahn, editor-in-chief of trade publication The Toy Book. “You’re going to start seeing bizarre supply chain hiccups.”
And advertisers are feeling the ripple effects, as well. For instance, tariffs are already having an impact on the timeline for shopping holidays, starting with back-to-school and continuing into the all-important holiday shopping season. Brands are already reevaluating how they will advertise during promotional periods this year, Modern Retail reported.
“One of the most unique elements of this year of tariffs is [going to be] how brands rethink the use of promotions from Prime Day to Black Friday,” said Brett Banner, svp of strategy for e-commerce analytics firm PriceSpider, which works on marketing strategies with more than 2,000 brands. “It’s unprecedented, as far as the different factors that they have to take in to make sure they have the right strategy this year.”
The exact impact the tariffs will have on the ad industry is still in flux, and depends on the extent of the tariffs — adding to the ongoing uncertainty. For example, eMarketer’s predictions for total ad spend in 2025 range from $394 billion to $422 billion, depending on where the tariffs land. And it’s worth noting that, on the lowest end of eMarketer’s predictions, ad spend will fall by $1 billion compared with 2024.
