With holiday shopping and end-of-year earnings reports on the horizon, the beauty industry is bracing for a busy few weeks ahead. And a more seismic shift is around the corner, as well: the U.S. presidential election, on Tuesday.
Emotions are running high at what will likely be a close race between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump. But while Tuesday’s results won’t necessarily have an impact on the financial markets in the short term, companies need to prepare for potential long-term policy changes and consider how consumer values intertwine with brands’ public politics.
“It’s unlikely that the immediate outcome of the election will have any major impact on the markets,” said Lauren Leibrandt, director of Baird’s global consumer investment banking group and co-leader of the firm’s beauty and wellness practice. “This is a period of heightened emotions, anxiety and uncertainty. We’ve been living in that zone for the past couple of years.”
Beauty and wellness have proved to be resilient categories even in times of uncertainty, with November’s election unlikely to be any different.
“No doubt, consumers will be distracted next week caused by the election, but that does not mean consumers will be spending less,” said Paula Floyd, CEO and founder of retail agency Headkount. “I anticipate a retail slowdown in major cities only if we see a rise in protests from the outcome of the election.”
According to Floyd, Headkount’s data shows no sign that there will be a beauty sales slowdown the week of the election, particularly with Sephora’s Beauty Insider sales event kicking off the first week of November.
But beauty consumers are also often driven by values when choosing to make a beauty purchase. That can put brands in something of a bind when it comes to whether to address or ignore a tense political environment.
“Brands run the risk of taking too much of a political stand and alienating some consumers. But at the same time, we’ve also been seeing the trend of consumers buying brands that closely align with their values,” said Leibrandt. “So, sometimes. it’s not enough to stay completely silent. It’s a difficult needle to thread.”
In October, Glossier ran a full-page ad in the New York Times encouraging readers to vote. The ad did not endorse either candidate, but it alluded to voting for women’s reproductive rights. Commenters on a Glossier Instagram post showcasing the ad were polarized, with followers expressing support of both Harris and Trump. Gen-Z favorite beauty brand Tower 28 also shared calls-to-action on Instagram encouraging its audience to register to vote throughout September and October. Sexual wellness brand Winx launched a “Vote with your v@g” sweatshirt in October encouraging its audience to vote in the election.
According to Glossier CEO Kyle Leahy, the brand’s ad will run on digital billboards up until Election Day in key swing states including Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “At a time when women’s rights are being challenged at the federal and state levels, it was important for our brand to use our platform. Recognizing the power of having a highly engaged, young audience who make up a significant voting bloc, we have the responsibility, and privilege, to do what we can to make an impact,” Leahy told Glossy. “We ultimately landed on a concept that felt clear, concise and resonant with the Glossier community tapping into the emotional aspect of why we vote.”
At a policy level, both Harris and Trump are known entities in the White House and unlikely to offer surprises, Leibrandt said. But one issue will likely be top of mind for companies preparing for a new administration: tariffs. Trump has promised to attach a 10-20% tariff on imported goods, which could raise taxes on goods from China to 60%. Affordable beauty brand E.l.f. has already said it would raise prices to compensate for higher tariffs should Trump come to power again in 2025.
“The threat of higher tariffs is definitely something companies are keeping an eye on,” said Leibrandt. “Certainly, companies have had to pass on price increases [to their customers] from elevated tariffs in the past.”
And cosmetics manufacturers are still contending with evolving regulations implemented by the outgoing administration. In December 2022, President Biden signed into law the Modernization of Cosmetics Regulation Act, which granted the FDA new oversight in managing the safety of cosmetics. Implementation of the act is still ongoing; starting in July, cosmetics manufacturers were required to provide a list of their products to the FDA, and in December 2025 the FDA is slated to issue a final ruling on good manufacturing practices that manufacturers must abide by.
The 2024 presidential election may not be resolved on Tuesday, however. The 2020 race between Trump and eventual winner Joe Biden wasn’t called until the Saturday after Election Day, equating to an anxious waiting period for the nation’s voters. But even uncertainty around the potential winner won’t necessarily translate to concrete shifts in the economy.
“People are probably in more of a wait-and-see mode,” said Leibrandt. “I do think talk of the impact of the election will probably be greater than the actual impact.”
